What 2026 Might Bring For Our Democracy

A retrospective of 2025, and what 2026 might bring.

A year ago, the conversation was, will he ever leave? We’re not having that conversation anymore.

There has been a marked shift in sentiment, not only among the American people, but also by Trump himself. We explore how and why, and what to expect in 2026.

Smooth Sailing to Start

We started out 2025, with smooth sailing for Trump. Unlike the chaotic start of the first regime, this time he was organized, simply following the road map set for him by Project 2025. As we close out 2025, Trump and his regime have implemented roughly half of the goals set out in that 920 page document.

The first half of 2025 was characterized by a long list of capitulations, as we covered in this project. From law firms, to corporations and billionaires seeking to win favor, to media and social media settling meritless lawsuits, to Senate Democrats rolling over, and so on. Gradually the visible pushback to Trump dissipated. By October, Trump mused even he was surprised by how easy things had become for him. Almost no one was challenging him in any way. Trump seemed as if walking on cloud nine, as if he had free rein, and was enjoying every moment of it.

He’s decidedly NOT enjoying it anymore!

The Inside Scoop

I have my theories of what shifted in the final months of 2025. We will get to that. But I want to note here that these are my opinions based on observing Trump 24/7, 365 days a week for this project, over his two regimes. Over five plus years of documenting Trump, I have come to know his patterns, and become a Trump observer in a sense.

During the second regime, I’ve had a lot less help! It’s much more difficult to get the so-called inside scoop from reporters of what is happening within the regime. I attribute this to three reasons.

First, the media landscape has been decimated. So many of the reliable publications that I counted on during the first regime no longer exist, or are a shell of their former selves under billionaire ownership, many of whom seek favor from Trump (see, Washington Post, LA Times, CBS News, etc.).

Second, reporters are much more cautious in their reporting, whether intentional or for fear of lawsuits. More than once, had I not observed Trump saying or doing something live on television firsthand, I wouldn’t have known it happened! Either our media normalized it and therefore didn’t think it newsworthy, or they were concerned that reporting it could result in a lawsuit.

Third, the second regime is composed of Trump sycophants, who have largely stayed closed lipped. Many career officials have been unjustly fired. But even the silence has started to shift as we close out 2025. We see far more reporting in December that gave us flavor of what was happening and coming apart behind the scenes.

Trump Stopped Talking About a Third Term

As we started the second regime, there was real and justifiable concern that Trump would not leave. Not only was Trump railing about the 2020 election being stolen from him, the regime was taking very calculated steps to impact the actual fairness of future elections. Trump at this point basked in the glory of his supporters and acolytes, like Steve Bannon suggesting his serving a third term (and beyond). When asked, Trump smiled like the Chesire Cat.

That’s not happening anymore. Three things have shifted since.

First, one Trump effort, to purposefully push red states to redistrict, has been neutralized, if not backfired. A federal court in Texas ruled against that state redrawing its map, which Trump’s friendly Supreme Court then overturned and let stand; however, this will be countered by California. Indiana Republicans stood up to Trump and his bullying, and quite defiantly said NO! All in all, Cook Political Report predicts despite all of Trump’s and his regime’s machinations, redistricting will likely be a wash.

Second, Trump’s initial efforts to impact the 2026 and 2028 elections, some of which followed the Project 2025 playbook, have run out of steam. There are still some efforts by his regime to build a national voter database, to make elections less safe and secure from foreign interference, and to limit who and how Americans can vote. But the pace and ferocity of those changes have ebbed considerably since the start of the year. Their efforts have not stopped completely, but the pace at which I am documenting actions has slowed considerably.