Week 33 - The Return
Experts in authoritarianism advise to keep a list of things subtly changing around you, so you’ll remember.
The biggest story of this week is Trump potentially taking us to war, after ordering strikes on Iran. I have urged readers of my Substack to follow the facts, and maintain a healthy amount of skepticism, because on face value, and knowing Trump’s patterns, a lot of things we have been told initially do not make sense.
First off, was there any doubt after the way Trump has pushed boundaries and grabbed for power during his second regime that he would act unilaterally? Was it constitutional? Probably not. But as we cover in this project, breaking norms in turn makes them the new normal, and other presidents have done the same. What differentiated Trump is that he left senior members of Congress who are Democrats in the dark — that is a first, and a highly partisan act. And as we have covered, Republicans have abdicated their role as a check on power, neutering the legislative branch, so they likely weren’t consulted, but rather told.
What still doesn’t make sense to me is, why now? The regime has tried to pass this off as a well thought out strategy in advance, with a “ruse” or “misdirection” of Trump giving two weeks for diplomacy. In my five years of covering him, this has never been how he operates. He is impulsive, chaotic, and prone to acting based on his last conversation, which in this case, would have occurred at his Bedminster golf club, right before he gave the order. Notably, as I wrote about in my Wag the Dog? article, the strike did come at a time when Trump finds his approval at its lowest level during the second regime, and his approval on handling immigration dropping by six points in the aftermath of Los Angeles, and nearing the 80 day mark of his 90 day tariff war pause without a single finalized deal to show for it.
We also still need the facts behind what intelligence he based his decision on, the success of the mission, and what’s next. Trump is desperately trying to control the narrative here, but the facts are coming out and getting in his way. It was also notable with this attack that so many competent people are gone, and roles have gone unfilled, leaving Trump with a small circle of yes men, even in times of crisis.
WAPO reported 50 years after Watergate, when Congress passed a wave of laws to rein in future presidents, Trump is challenging and disregarding reforms on transparency, spending, conflicts of interest, and more. Some say Trump has gone further than Richard Nixon.
Trump has ignored safeguards to prevent the unjustified firings of federal workers; he forced out two FBI directors who are supposed to serve 10-year terms; and he defied the Impoundment Control Act, which is supposed to prevent presidents from dismantling federal agencies.
Inspectors general were also part of his post-Watergate reform, with Trump firing 16, and disregarding the required 30 day notice. Trump also broadly disregards the principle of not using the federal government to enrich himself. The Supreme Court will likely enshrine some of his challenges.
A whistleblower complaint by Erez Reuveni, a Justice Department lawyer who was fired, said senior DOJ official Emil Bove voiced his intent to disobey court orders as others stonewalled and misled judges. Trump has nominated Bove to serve as an appellate judge.
While the regime tried to portray Reuveni as a disgruntled employee, the filing included a trail of emails, texts, and phone records which would support his version of events, and notes that he had defended controversial policies of Trump during the first regime.
On Sunday, the federal magistrate judge in the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case ordered his release on bail, but conceded he was likely to be detained for immigration violations. The judge said the DOJ’s case had serious problems and relied heavily on deals with informants.
The judge also cast doubt on the narratives of Trump and Attorney General Pam Bondi of Abrego Garcia posing a threat and being a human trafficker, saying allegations came from “at least three, if not four or more, levels of hearsay” and carried “no weight” legally.